Анализаторът Руслан Трад коментира за Bulevard.bg опита за военен преврат в Турция и терористичното нападение в Ница
В рамките на няколко дни светът преживя два големи шока - кървавият атентат в Ница и опитът за преврат на турски военни. За да разберем същността на двете събития, се обръщаме към журналиста и анализатор на тенденциите в Близкия изток Руслан Трад:
- Как се стигна до този опит за преврат? Преди няколко години армията не се намеси по време на масовите протести на площад Таксим в Истанбул. Защо сега?
- Нека уточним, че става дума за формация в самата армия, а не армията като цяло. При първите новини, идващи от Турция, че е блокирано движението по Босфора и мостовете на морето са затворени, генералният щаб заяви, че не подкрепя действията на отцепническата група военни. От години насам има разделение в самите структури в Турция заради политиките, водени от президента Реджеп Ердоган и преди това, когато той беше премиер.
Самата армия в Турция има своите виждания за управлението на страната - можем да споменем вижданията й относно малцинствата, когато преди години беше дори забранено да се говори за кюрдски етнос; има също така ориентир към Запада и НАТО - армейските кръгове са против отварянето на Турция към Близкия изток и приемането на такъв огромен брой бежанци от Сирия - над 2 мил. към днешна дата.
Също така, трябва да отбележим, че армията пострада през последните 14 години, когато бяха уволнени и отстранени няколкостотин военнослужещи. Както често се случва с недоволството, то избива в един момент. Превратът е бил замислен за тази сутрин, но е бил засечен по-рано - именно заради това се случиха събитията от изминалата нощ.
Засега знаем, че са участвали около 3000 военни, водени най-вероятно от наскоро отстранен полковник, Мухарем Косе, и от бившия главнокомандващ военновъздушните сили (ВВС) на Турция ген. Акън Йозтюрк. И двамата са премахнати от армията за вероятни връзки с движението на Гюлен, което държавата в Турция вижда като опасност. Все още не е потвърдено категорично, че те са лидери на опита за преврат. Ситуацията с Таксим и днес е различна. Мотивите са различни, общественото състояние е различно.
- Защо беше неуспешен този опит за преврат?
- Както споменах, ситуацията е различна днес. В Турция е нажежено заради несигурността около страната - конфликти в Сирия и Ирак - терористична заплаха от "Ислямска държава", сепаратизъм в Югоизточна Турция и сражения с Кюрдската работническа партия. Това се отразява и върху отношенията вътре в структурите на държавата, наред с действията на президента Ердоган.
Но трябва да е ясно - независимо, че мнозина излязоха на протести срещу управлението на Партията на справедливостта и развитието, днес немалко от тези хора застанаха на страната на правителството. Не го направиха заради обич към президента, а в името на мира в страната. Ситуацията беше на ръба - можеше да се стигне до по-сериозен граждански конфликт.
Ако през изминалата нощ нямаше успокоение, тази сутрин гражданите щяха да бъдат принудени да избират страна, а това вече можеше да доведе до сериозни последствия. Още през нощта полицията и специалните части застанаха срещу опита за преврат, което доведе до смъртта на дузина служители на реда. Беше атакувана централата на специалните части - гръбнакът на управлението на Ердоган, - при което се стигна до жертви, включително цивилни.
Имаше стрелба, размяна на огън, в Анкара дори сега е неспокойно. Беше обстрелван самият парламент, а по време на сесията му през нощта, когато присъстваха всички партии, наред с цивилни, бяха хвърлени три бомби. Малко по-късно, към 4 сутринта българско време, войници обсадиха централите на Си Ен Ен Тюрк и вестник "Хюриет" - беше спряно предаването на живо. Часове по-рано пък спря излъчване държавната телевизия, а говорителката беше принудена да говори с насочено към нея оръжие.
Интервю: Руслан Трад пред Bulevard.bg: Разбиване на митовете за бежанците и Близкия изток
Споменавам тези факти от изминалата нощ, за да е ясно защо участващите в преврата не получиха подкрепа сред обществото. Ще цитирам мой контакт, с когото проведох един от няколкото си разговора през последните часове: "Бях на протестите срещу Ердоган на Гези. Обгазиха ме. Смятам Партията на справедливостта и развитието за отпадък. Но няма да позволя военен фашистки преврат в страната." Това мнение беше широко разпространено. Разбирате ли, не говорим за това да обичаме Ердоган или неговото правителство, а че алтернативата, която опитаха да предоставят през нощта, не се харесва на обществото. Масово няма да се подкрепи взимане на властта с оръжие - Турция има достатъчно дълга традиция с провеждане на избори и колкото и да е проблемна демокрацията в страната, тя съществува.
Кюрдските движения, освен ПКК, също застанаха с позиции в подкрепа на институции в Турция и че военно управление е неприемливо. Спомнете си какво направи армията в Египет или Сирия, например - директна стрелба, завземане на позиции, взимане на властта. Това се избегна в Турция, донякъде защото като цяло армията отказа да се противопостави на излезлите на улицата протестиращи.
Имаше кадри на катерещи се по танковете хора, други лягаха пред тях. Цивилни "арестуваха" войници. Това трябва да се вземе предвид. В историята на Турция има поне четири военни преврата, но те винаги установяват псевдодемократична обстановка. Армията наистина вижда себе си като защитник на наследството на Ататюрк и лост срещу религиозното влияние. Освен всичко, за армията въпросите около кюрдите са повече от ясни - не биха преговаряли с ПКК. Така че да се вижда армията като защитник на демокрацията, е несериозно - армията по подразбиране е недемократична институция. Защитник на страната и институциите й, вероятно, но на демокрацията? Съмнявам се.
Трябва да поговорим и за това дали и как е имало подкрепа за военните, опитали преврат, извън Турция. Едва ли биха действали без да са получили сигнали отвън - в противен случай действията им са наистина странни и ненавременни. Има спекулации за американска намеса заради сближаването на Анкара с Москва през изминалата седмица. Говори се, че първият разговор на Ердоган с чужди лидер при новините за опит за преврат, е бил с Путин. Дали американците са ядосани? Определено. Дали са участвали в опита за преврат? Не е сигурно, по-вероятно не. Никой не желае Турция да влиза в несигурност и политическа криза - това е факт, който се подкрепи при последните дипломатически маневри около Сирия.
- Какви ще са последствията вътре в самата Турция?
- Трудно е още да се каже, защото е прекалено скорошно събитие. Засега имаме това - защита на управлението на Ердоган отвън - от Вашингтон през Европа до Москва. Очевидно е нежеланието в момента да има трус в Турция. За самата Турция имаме добра и лоша новина: добрата е, че беше спрян националистически опит за преврат, който би докарал на власт армията, а това е нещо, от което и в България нямаме полза.
Лошата новина е, че Ердоган умее да се възползва от подобни ситуации и вероятно ще получи популярност и сигурност в името на сигурността. Политиките му са скандални и трябва да бъдат премислени. Надявам се и да види, че благодарение на социалните мрежи, които той толкова често блокира, беше показан опитът за преврат и се предизвика мощна вълна извън Турция. Това вероятно е първият случай в историята, в която гледахме на живо за няколко часа през интернет опит за военен преврат, граждански отпор на армията и прекратяване на преврата.
Интервю: Журналистът Руслан Трад пред Bulevard.bg за пътуването си до фронтовата линия на боеве срещу ИД
Една от възможните последици е да се задълбочи кризата между силовите структури в Турция, а и в обществото - видяхме ясно разделението между формациите: опитът за преврат дойде най-вече от жандармерията и военновъздушните сили, докато на страната на правителството застанаха полицията, специалните части и службите. Едва ли скоро ще има помирение между тези фракции. Днес излезе новината и че освен всички военни, участвали в преврата, са отстранени и 2700 съдии. Отделно, отстранени са 29 полковници и петима генерали. Назначен е и нов началник на Първа армия, Юмит Дундар. Това е огромна реакция на държавата и вероятно няма да е последната.
За съжаление в момента се оказва, че в Турция имаме два избора - един по-религиозен и един по-военен и националистически. Балансьорите, левите, са в затвора и в двата случая. Обществото ще наблюдава отблизо събитията и опитите на една или друга сила да опита да установи по-силен контрол.
- Тази популярност на Ердоган след опита за преврат според теб ще му даде ли нужното най-сетне да даде ход на идеята си за президентска държава?
- Не се знае. Той отиваше в тази посока, но опитът за преврат не беше очакван и вероятно това ще донесе някои промени в плановете му за преустройство на държавните институции. Предполагам, че няма да е точно в този момент - това би било важна крачка и също толкова голямо сътресение за обществото, а хората са изключително напрегнати. В България сме склонни да обясняваме събитията в Турция през призмата на страха и конспирацията, и затова опростеното виждане е онова, което предлагат редица анализатори по телевизиите и медиите като цяло.
Но за мен това е опасно и показва липса на отговорност към зрители и читатели - ние сме гранична на Турция държава и като такава имаме нужда от възможно по-изчистен от емоции поглед, защото трябва да имаме възможности за реакции. Турция е голяма по сила държава, водеща икономика - нямаме право на грешки.
- По другата актуална тема - атентата в Ница. "Ислямска държава" ли стои зад атаката?
- Появиха се новини, че "Ислямска държава“ са поели отговорност, но това не е точно така. Групировката заяви, че е "повлияла" на нападателя да направи тази атака в нейно име. Това е различно. Всъщност изказването означава, че пропагандата и машината на ИД е много по-напреднала, отколкото се предполагаше. В момента организацията е способна да влияе по начин, че всеки желаещ да извърши престъпление ще може да го направи и така да се "увековечи", тъй като ИД ще го припознаят за свой муджахид - боец.
Нападението в Ница беше извършено от човек с три деца, развод, криминално минало, познат на полицията и с потвърдено депресивно състояние. Вероятно е участвал и в разбитата през 2014 г. клетка на ИД в Кан, когато става ясно, че част от младежите тогава са се върнали от Сирия. Защо някои от тях са били пуснати или поне да бъдат включени в програма за дерадикализация, е въпрос, на който трябва да бъде даден отговор от френските власти.
Виж още: Защо "Ислямска държава" удря Европа и как джихадистите избират целите си?
- Как може да се противостои на тези "самотни вълци"?
- Единствено с адекватна политика, която да застане срещу идеологията на "Ислямска държава" и крайнодесните формации в Европа. Вълците единаци са най-често хора с лични проблеми, имат криминални деяния и минало. Т.е. говорим за пропаст в самото общество, от една страна, и в отношенията между обществото и държавата - и там именно трябва да се търси решението на проблема.
Онова, което е много важно да се разбере е, че ИД използват много умело - подобно на крайнодесните и крайнолевите организации - социалните несправедливости и разочарованието. Не говорим само за използване на оръжия и армии - ИД има сила заради света, в който живеем, заради всичко, на което сме свидетели. Процесът би бил дълъг да се поправят редица грешки, но той трябва да започне незабавно, за да може да се контрира влиянието на подобни групировки сред младото население не само в Европа, но и по света като цяло.
- Има ли лесно решение на проблема с ИД и тяхно унищожаване ще доведе ли до край на тези нападения?
- Лесно решение няма. Но може да се започне отнякъде и то не е само използването на военни средства, напротив. На първо време - премахване на режимите в Близкия изток, които използват религията като инструмент за влияние, противопоставянето на сунити-шиити. Нужно е да бъдат изключени от международната общност подобни режими, а не да бъдат считани за партньори и съюзници във "войната срещу тероризма", защото те самите участват под повърхността в подкрепа на подобни крайни движения. Трябва да се контрира ролята на неофициални милиции, които извършват погроми и нападения на своя глава, а това отчуждава желаещите да застанат срещу радикалите.
Също така, засегнатите държави в Европа например трябва да реагират с целенасочени действия срещу радикализацията и нейните причинители - липсата на справедливост, наличието на висока безработица, сегрегацията, маргинализацията, расизмът. Нужно е в Европа да има повече стимули да се привлекат онези хора, които могат да застанат срещу радикализма, но ги е страх.
Един от последните примери за проблем в системата е, когато беше заловен мозъкът на атаките в Париж и Брюксел. Той беше издаден от момиче в кооперацията, където той се беше скрил. Но полицията не направи нищо, за да я защити, и тя в момента не смее да излезе от дома си, тъй като е заплашена.
Вероятно всичко това звучи наивно и заучено, но реално тези проблеми са значителна част от пропагандата на групировки като ИД. Колкото повече има популизъм в Европа, толкова по-добре за джихадистките движения. Колкото повече има расизъм и омраза, толкова по-лесно е за ИД да изпълни целите си.
Да, трудно е, но трябва да проявим хладнокръвие. Говорителят на групировката заяви през май, че Америка не бива да смята, че ще спре "Ислямска държава" с разрушаването на няколко града и позиции, защото "докато има воля за борба, ще я има и ИД". Това е ясно послание, което трябва да разчетем правилно, а именно - да погледнем собствените си дворове и да преценим дали подкрепяме правилните хора и режими в Близкия изток и Северна Африка.
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"Ruslan Tradimalo! Li e podkrepa za prevratadzhiite izvan Turtsiya e pokazatel na solidarnost i choveshkost. Tazi initsiativa e vazhna za podkrepa na tezi, koito se boriat za svoboda i demokratski tsennosti. Нека обединим усилията си в подкрепа на тях и на мира в света!"
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Войниците- пучисти са знаели, че отиват на учение.
При количеството арестувани генерали , ако всичките са генерали-заговорници, в затвора трябваше да бъде Ердоган, а не те!
Това не е "опит за преврат" , а спретнато от сатрапа Ердоган театро!
Побеснелите тълпи ердоганисти по улиците на Истанбул са чудовищата, рожби на ислямофашизма, чийто застъпник е Ердоган!
Да защитаваш Ердоган и да го представяш за по-малкото зло е като да защитаваш ислямофашизма, понеже ти самият си ислямофашист!
Мюнхен 1938 вече сме го гледали... Само Трътко не е... Дори на документален филм!
Тъпото парче Руско Трътката вади един суперски комунистически речник, цитирам:"срещу радикализацията и нейните причинители - липсата на справедливост, наличието на висока безработица, сегрегацията, маргинализацията, расизмът. " Изброеното като "причинители на радикализацията" е ЛЪЖА!!! ЕДИН ПРИЧИНИТЕЛ на радикализация има и това Е ИСЛЯМА!
Мюсюлманите са мързеливи, нагли, прости , но ГОЛЕМИ ИЗПОЛЗВАЧИ- дай им да раждат и да вземат помощи, да ги лекуват безплатно , да им дават жилища и т.н.
Никой не може да накара някого да уважава този или онзи! Уважението се заслужва! Така че не ми говори за расизми, Трътка, а се заеми с мързела и наглостта на единоверците си!
Много обиди към автор, но никой от нападащите не се захваща да каже какво точно е проблемно в анализа и да добави нещо смислено в дискусията. Защо ли не се учудвам.
Ами момчето е анал-лизатор! Пие сирийска кръв- нали е сирийски демократ, а точно сирийските демократи устроиха кървавата баня в Сирия! Седи си в София на сигурно, топло и безопасно, хули българите , че не искат"бежанци", т.е. ислямисти, и иска друг да донесе демокрацията в Сирия, ама както той я иска, не друга!Затова му се плащат парии и той се гой и кръви!
Баси стъкмистиките, баси усукването по килифарски! Еби се у гъзо, бе," журналисте"!
Много ми е интересно кой финансира инициативите на това момче и с какво се прехранва??? Някои казват, че бил блогър и анализатор...ами то хубаво, ама с това човек не може да се прехранва, особено в България... Та се връщаме към въпроса....
Путколане, ето го проблемът на Турция в два цитата:
1)"Ислямът е една примитивна бедуинска религия, един разлагащ се труп, който с вонята си, заплашва да убие всичко наоколо."
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2)"Джамиите са нашите казарми, кубетата - нашите шлемове, минаретата са нашите щикове, а вярващите - нашите войници."
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Крайнодесните формации в Европа са нейното бъдеще и здрав разум, които ще се справят с обрязаните наглеци като теб!
Сега се разкри , приятелю на Турция, в целия си ислямистки блясък!