Политологът д-р Калоян Методиев коментира пред Bulevard.bg промените в Турция - в обществото и в политиката на страната
От дни насам темата за Турция и неуспешния опит за преврат там е водеща. Промяната в самото турско общество обаче не е от вчера. Ние се обърнахме към политолога д-р Калоян Методиев, който да ни разясни именно това - промените в Турция, случващи се неусетно в обществото и в политиката на страната.
- Провалът на преврата безспорно засилва позициите на Реджеп Ердоган в обществото. Какви смятате, че ще са следващите му ходове и ще задейства ли, според Вас, плановете си за промяна на конституцията и президентска държава?
- Той вече ги задейства. Най-логичното е да използва ситуацията, за да укрепи личната си власт и да увеличи влиянието на партията си върху всички сфери на социалния и политически живот. Очевидно на пътя му стоят определени групи в армията, съдебната система и службите за сигурност. Хилядите набързо арестувани от именно тези структури са още няколко крачки към окопаването на режима.
- По Ваши думи Ердоган прави обратното на това, което Кемал Ататюрк извършва като реформа в началото на XX век – връща Турция обратно към Исляма. В какво се наблюдава това?
Колкото и парадоксално да звучи реформите и на двамата започват от наглед маловажни неща като мустаците при мъжете и забрадките при жените. Това са ключовите символи на идеологически сблъсък между кемилисти и ислямисти през последните 100 години. Своето централно място в този процес има и алкохолът. Храненето, европейското облекло, мястото на жената в обществото, светския характер на институциите са други неща в този процес. По същество и кемализмът и ислямизмът са форми на определена диктатура. И това е нормално. Турция не може да бъде демократична държава в смисъла в който се влага това в Западна Европа. Който го мисли е или фанатик, или наивник.
- Какви според вас са следващите му стъпки в тази посока? Ще продължи ли тази линия на засилване на влиянието на исляма в турското общество или по-скоро ще сложи чертата преди да отиде в групата на крайно религиозните държави като Иран и Саудитска Арабия, например?
- Ислямизацията в Турция върви с пълна пара. Процесът вече не може да бъде спрян без социален трус – преврат, революция, поколенски сблъсък, война и т.н. Ердоган ще продължи да говори за многообразие, демокрация, права на човека, уважение към желанията на гражданите, демократични и избори и т.н. Зад сцената политиката му ще бъде последователна.
Трудно ще изгради напълно теократична държава, защото отпорът в някои части на Западна Турция (предимно светска) и Югоизточна (кюрдска) няма да е никак малък. Западът няма да го търпи до безкрай. Ако усети, че става опасен ще намери начин да го детронира.
Не бих сложил Иран и Саудитска арабия под един знаменател. Едните дължат успеха си на петролните сонди, докато вторите са наследници на древна цивилизация в която ислямът е гостенин. Пътят и целите им са различни. Уахабитския ислям става първостепенен проблем пред света.
- От месеци в поведението на президента Ердоган се наблюдава по-агресивно отношение към Европейския съюз. Сега държавата се отдалечава още повече от Европа с дискусиите за въвеждането отново на смъртното наказание. Смятате ли, че Турция се е отказала от идеята за членство в ЕС и ако се е отказала, какви са пътищата за геополитическата ѝ ориентация?
- Европейският съюз от години разиграва Турция с преговорния процес. Ясно е, че няма и никога не е имало вариант Анкара да стане член на клуба.
И двете страни просто се лъжеха през десетилетията, за да си решават свои цели. Най-вече около Кипър, демографски въпроси, вътрешни проблеми.
Ердоган няма да получи легитимация от европейските столици. Той си е азиатски тип лидер. Въвеждането на смъртното наказание си е вътрешен турски проблем. Това е инструмент, който се използва в момента от ЕС. Лично мен ме дразнят европейските крайности, които приемат масови и брутални убийци, изнасилвачи, нарткотрафиканти, терористи и т.н. за субект на човешки права и им осигуряват хотелски условия на живот по затвори тип курорти.
Интервю: Руслан Трад: Имало ли е подкрепа за превратаджиите извън Турция?
Пътят на Турция при Ердоган минава през сближаване със страните от Персийския залив. Опити за сближаване с Москва на базата на взаимноизгодни икономически проекти. Някакви усилия към Централна Азия на базата на исляма. Отделни опити в Черна Африка, където китайците са оставили свободно пространство. Още малко извиване на ръцете на ЕС с мигрантската карта. Търговия с Вашингтон заради сухопътния потенциал на турската армия. Горе-долу това са им опциите.
- Можем ли да говорим за охладняване на отношенията между Вашингтон и Анкара след опита за преврат? Днес държавният секретар Джон Кери дори изрази съмнения за бъдещето на Турция в НАТО след масовите арести на военни и магистрати. Как ще коментирате това?
- Можем. Набеденият от турските власти за вдъхновител на преврата Фатулах Гюлен живее от години в Съединените щати, което няма как да стане без одобрението на американските власти. Турският премиер днес обяви, че зад организацията стоят чужди сили. В спомагателни медии се прокрадва, че това е станало със знанието на ЦРУ. Не трябва да забравяме, че е много рано за трезв анализ и всеки хвърля версии заради свои сметки. Фактите засега са малко.
Смятам, че НАТО се разшири прекалено много, ценностите му станаха много разтегливи като понятие, противоречията между отделните страни са видими. Ето ви факти: военни от втората по численост армия на НАТО правят преврат за смяна на властта в държава член на НАТО. Кое е НАТО?
- Турция официално обвини Фетхуллах Гюлен като идеен подстрекател на опита за преврат. Гюлен и Ердоган обаче допреди няколко години бяха сподвижници и дори може да се каже, че Ердоган достигна властта с помощта на Фетхуллах Гюлен. Какво доведе до този разрив между двамата и къде е опасността за официалната власт в Турция от Гюлен?
- Не знам доколко Гюлен е идеолог, организатор, стратег и доколко лице на оглавяването от него движение. Със сигурност то е могъща структура, която проникна дълбоко в инфраструктурата на турската държава и в бившите съветски републики в Централна Азия. Има неща в него, които се харесват - уважението към по-възрастните, респекта към семейството, чувството за групова принадлежност, ислямски традиции, строг морал. Все неща, които създават солидна основа за общи действия. Подобни противници са много силни. Когато имаш морална основа, ти си здраво стъпил за борба в името на това, което отстояваш.
Той помогна за идването на Ердоган на власт, но в един момент стана излишен, защото реши, че ще дели властта с него. Често срещан политически сюжет. Сега започва нова голяма чистка в полиция, служби за сигурност, армия и съд. Доколко покрай хора на Гюлен ще „изгорят“ и поддръжници на светския модел на развитие, т.нар. кемалисти, към момента не мога да кажа.
- Какво можем да очакваме да се случи в следващите месеци в Турция?
- Никой не знае. Трябва да се следи с повишено внимание положението около кюрдския етнос. Особено действията на ПКК. Също и средния ешелон на армията, който може да даде още една битка срещу управляващите в Анкара. Опозицията е много рехава и не предлага лидер с ясно изразен профил, който да излезе срещу Ердоган. Най-мрачните сценарии говорят за гражданска война. Важни са стъпките, които ще предприемат САЩ, ЕС, Русия. Ердоган става неудобен за Запада и вероятно вече му е взета мярка.
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