Политологът Татяна Буруджиева коментира пред Bulevard.bg президентските избори у нас, стратегиите на кандидатите и това, което можем да очакваме след самия вот
Вторият тур на изборите за президент на България наближава, а битката става все по-ожесточена. За да даде яснота по самата кампания, процесите, които протичат между двата тура, стратегиите на кандидатите, изборите като цяло и защо социолози и политолози масово не познаха този път, се обръщаме към политолога Татяна Буруждиева.
- Политолози и социолози сбъркаха и за изборите в България, и за изборите в САЩ? На какво се дължат тези разминавания в прогнозите на експертите и реалните изборни резултати?
- На няколко фактора. Първо, чии прогнози и анализи доминират в медиите - т.е. тук става дума за проблемът "свобода на медиите". Защото и в двете страни имаше прогнози и данни, които бяха адекватни на постигнатите резултати. Второ, защото по-коректно се анализират и прогнозират позитивни кампании, а не негативни. При вторите се атакуват чувства и винаги има риск да се постигне бумерангов ефект. Поне за България този фактор повлия сериозно. Трето, защото активността е много решаващ фактор. Но често се случва хората да декларират висока или ниска активност, а по време на гласуването да се случи обратното.
Разбира се, можем да прибавим и пристрастията на определени агенции, по-скоро на собствениците им. Но в САЩ тези пристрастия се декларират и са ясни. В България чак след изборите става ясно коя партийна централа с кои агенции работи, а на тези избори и това няма да стане ясно. Защото повечето данни бяха получени от „независими“ изследвания или от поръчани от медиите такива.
- Как ще коментирате резултатите от първия тур на президентските избори у нас? Кои са победителите и кои са загубилите след вота?
- Аз, за разлика от г-н Цветанов, няма да твърдя че победители са Марешки и Каракачанов. Победилтел на първи тур е двойката Радев-Йотова. Очакван висок резултат за Каракачанов, защото патриотичният вот от последната година е в рамките на 16%, а ситуацията беше използвана отлично. Изводите, които направиха патриотите - че вотът е за позиции, т.е. не е обусловен от личност, са напълно адекватни.
Що се отнася до Марешки - на всички избори има около 5-10% от избирателите, които гласуват така. Дали това ще е Жорж Ганчен и Бизнес блока, или Яне Янев, или Бареков, този вид избирател съществува и на 6 ноемвири беше максимално мобилизиран от Марешки. Големите губещи от този първи тур са ГЕРБ и г-н Борисов. Самата г-жа Цачева трябваше да играе ролята на "който и да номинираме, ще победи", но на практика изигра ролята на катализатор на отношението на българите към управлението и към премиера. Както и към начина, по който ГЕРБ отива към изборите и ги провежда.
- Победата на първия тур на ген. Радев беше изтълкувана и в Русия, и на Запад като отваряне на България към Кремъл. У нас пък повече се говори за наказателен вот срещу управляващите. Кое от двете виждаме тук?
- Те така тълкуваха и възможността Тръмп да бъде избран. Сега става ясно, че САЩ и Русия ще се разберат, както отдавна твърдя. Ако беше вярна първата теза, ген. Радев щеше да е избран още на първи тур, защото 70% от българите се определят като русофили. Според мен, българите искаха да покажат на управляващите, че така повече не могат да управляват. Всъщност, че никой повече не може да си управлява както му хрумне.
- Какви са стратегиите пред двамата кандидати на балотажа, ако искат да спечелят? Какво бихте ги посъветвали, ако бяхте в екипите им?
- Това е принцип в практиката на предизборните кампании - първият трябва да продължи да следва стратегията и тактиката, които са довели до успеха му. И трябва да внимава за възможността опонента му да не създаде обединение срещу него. За втория - необходимо е да се откаже от всичко, което е довело до неуспеха и да се отвори максимално към избирателите.
В случая Цачева прави опит първо, да мобилизира избирателите на ГЕРБ, защото те не са я подкрепили изцяло. Второ, да разшири подкрепа чрез подкрепи от отпадналите от съревнованието каниддати. Защо е трудно да се каже, че Цачева ще постигне успеха на Плевнелиев, който беше в същата ситуация през 2011 г.? Защото, ако се върнете към онази кампания, всеки сам може да забележи драстичните разлики. И, най-вече, защото на тази кампания избирателите не слушат и не се подчиняват на своите лидери. Те искат сами да решават.
- Преди дни вашият колега Димитър Димитров говореше за ролята на глобалните събития за изборите. В случая голямото събитие са изборите в САШ. Могат ли те да повлияят на балотажа у нас?
- Ако приемем, че лансираната от министрите на Борисов теза, че с избора на Радев България ще изпадне в международна изолация и ще бъде изтласкана от цивилизования свят, е вярна, то изборите в САЩ ще окажат съществено влияние. Защото са доказателство, че светът и процесите в него вече са различни. Така че, важно ще е личността, която избираме и как тя ще успее да представя България в тази напълно променена ситуация, без да може да разчита на утъпкани пътеки в отношенията между държавите.
Интервю: Анастас Стефанов: "Да обединява" и "Да е честен" - най-големите дефицити в политическата ни класа
- От кои групи могат да се надяват двамата кандидати да привлекат привърженици за втория тур?
- От избирателите, които вече са гласували на първи тур, основно. Това са хора, които са показали, че активно се интересуват от участието си в изборите. Разбира се, част от тях няма да излязат на втори тур, защото личният им избор не участва. Но действията на ГЕРБ показват, че те се стремут да "вдигнат вълна", основана на страх от възможен резултат, нажежавайки страсти от минали времена. Така спечели Желев на втори тур. Но, ако анализираме профила на подкрепящите Радев, на тях подобни страсти са чужди. Ако към това прибавим резултатите от референдума, то можем да очакваме, че нагласите на избирателите са наистина "анти", но срещу статуквото в политиката.
Най-сериозните резервоари са патриотите, които и на парламентарните избори и през отминалата кампания гласуваха за неща, различни от предлаганите и направени от ГЕРБ. Вторият резервоар са българските турци, които се оказаха лошите турци, ако подкрепят Радев. За разлика от добрите турци в Турция, които подкрепиха Цачева. Подобно разделение би следвало еднозначно да мотивира тези избиратели. Третият резервоар са избирателите на Марешки, които той призова да не гласуват за Цачева, а за Манушев. И четвъртият са левите гласове на Калфин и Дончева, които на практика си имат кандидат. Раформаторите са ясно разделени, а Трайков доста неясно подкрепи Цачева. Това са аритметичните сметки, които никога не са сериозен ориентир за крайните резултати и по-скоро приличат на неверните социологически прогнози.
- От ГЕРБ обявиха, че при загуба на балотажа, Борисов подава оставка? Ако този сценарий се изпълни, на фона на разцепващия се Реформаторски блок, засилените позиции на Обединените патриоти и възхода на БСП към момента, какво можем да кажем, че ни очаква в следващите месеци?
- Предсрочни избори. Независимо от резултатите на президентските избори, защото те са само катализатор на онова, което вече се случи - правителствената криза и липсата на мнозинство зад това правителство. През пролетта най-вероятно.
Ако се върнем на предложения сценарий, то трябва да минем през конституционните разпоредби на опит да се състави правителство в този парламент. Не защото някой ще иска да го съставя, а защото по Конституция отиващият си президент не може да разпусне Народното събрание. Така че, то ще трябва да свърши малко работа, докато се стигне до избори. Едната е да приеме бюджета. Втората е да се произнесе какво ще става с въпросите от референдума. Важно е да отбележим, че служебното правителство този път ще се наложи да бъде съобразено не с желанията на Плевнелиев или Борисов, а с парламентарните партии.
Що се отнася до това какво би се получило на тези предсрочни избори, макар и рано за прогнози, но предвид резултатите от първия тур, Народното събрание отново ще е пъстро. И най-доброто решение би било правителство на широка коалиция с програма - основните проблеми, за които хората гласуваха на 6 ноември: промяна на начина, по който функционира политическата система, гаранитране сигурността на България, справяне с бедността - разбирай, развитие на икономиката, която да „ражда“ дребна и средна класа, а не бедни. И, както обявиха повечето кандидати, за които гласуваха хората - това трябва да стане чрез превръщане на образованието и науката в приоритет.
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